How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

This Polymarket-hosted market asks how many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space—defined as an altitude of at least 62 miles (100 km)—during 2026, with mirrored contracts on Kalshi and Limitless. Each outcome corresponds to a range or threshold (e.g., "Above 3," "5–6," "Above 7"), and resolution follows SpaceX's official launch record. Traders are overwhelmingly confident that at least a handful of flights will clear the Kármán line: the "Above 3" outcome sits at 92.0% on Kalshi, making it the runaway favourite. "Above 4" is close to a coin flip at 58.0%, while "Above 5" drops to 32.0% and "Above 7" falls to 15.0%. On Polymarket's granular bucket ladder, "<5" (40.0%) and "5–6" (38.0%) dominate, with everything beyond seven flights carried at low single digits. Cross-platform spreads are essentially zero on the headline outcomes, though Limitless carries a few thin quotes (e.g., 50.0% on "<5" and "5–6") that reflect its shallow liquidity rather than genuine disagreement. The cautious distribution tracks the year's actual cadence. Starship was launched five times in 2025, and the twelfth Starship test launch on May 22, 2026, using Ship 39 and Booster 19, was the first test of Version 3. The FAA declared the Super Heavy failure a mishap and grounded Starship pending SpaceX's investigation, which has compressed the window for additional 2026 flights. With only one confirmed space-reaching launch on the board mid-year and the vehicle grounded, markets are clustered around a modest 4–6 flight total.