How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
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| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 or more states Winner | Won | — | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — |
1-2 states No liquidity | Lost | $5 | — | — | — | — | No liquidity0.1% | — |
3-4 states No liquidity | Lost | $5 | — | — | — | — | No liquidity0.1% | — |
5-6 states No liquidity | Lost | $2 | — | — | — | — | No liquidity0.1% | — |
7-9 states No liquidity | Lost | — | — | — | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — |
0 states No liquidity | Lost | $40 | — | — | — | — | No liquidity0.1% | — |
Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
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