Illinois pension debt in 2026? — Fiscal Year 2026
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Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Above $150 billion | 15.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above $155 billion | 9.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above $160 billion | 6.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above $165 billion | 5.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Above $170 billion | 5.0%Kalshi | $5.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The Underlying is the combined unfunded actuarial liability of Illinois’ five State-funded retirement systems for Fiscal Year 2026, as reported in the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s November Special Pension Briefing. The five State-funded retirement systems are the Teachers’ Retirement System, State Universities Retirement System, State Employees’ Retirement System, Judges’ Retirement System, and General Assembly Retirement System. Use the value reported for total unfunded liabilities, or an equivalent combined unfunded actuarial liability figure, for all five systems together. The value should be based on the actuarial value of assets / smoothed value of assets, not the market value of assets, unless CGFA does not report an actuarial/smoothed-value figure for FY2026.
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