Iowa Senate winner? — In 2026

The Iowa Senate winner market covers the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Iowa, with traders pricing which candidate will win the general election (including any run-offs). Polymarket resolves based on race calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, while Kalshi allows accelerated resolution once a consensus of media organizations projects a winner. Two named candidates currently anchor the market: Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. Ashley Hinson is the clear favourite, with a consensus implied probability of 60.5%. Polymarket prices her at 60.5% while Kalshi has her slightly lower at 59.0%, a modest cross-platform spread of 2.0 points. Josh Turek sits at a 41.5% consensus, quoted at 42.0% on Kalshi and 41.0% on Polymarket, a narrower 1.0-point gap. Kalshi carries the bulk of the activity at roughly $1.66 million in volume, versus about $209,000 on Polymarket. The favourite-underdog gap of roughly 19 points suggests traders lean toward Hinson but do not treat the race as a lock. Cross-platform pricing is broadly aligned, with Kalshi marginally cheaper on Hinson and marginally more expensive on Turek than Polymarket.