Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

This market asks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls or similar charges on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by a series of specified deadlines. To resolve "Yes" for a given cut-off, the policy must apply generally to all commercial vessels or a defined subcategory, and payment must be effectively required for passage. Isolated one-off demands do not qualify. The event is listed on Polymarket, which carries essentially all the $3.06M in volume, with Limitless posting the date-bucket outcomes. Across deadlines, "No" is the clear favourite. The nearest tier resolves "No" at a consensus 97.6% on Polymarket, with later cut-offs still leaning heavily against action at 89.0% and 75.0%. Correspondingly, the "Yes" legs price at just 2.5%, 11.0% and 25.0% as the horizon extends. On the Limitless date ladder, December 31 leads the "if it happens" scenarios at 25.1%, followed by October 31 at 11.0% and September 30 at 2.4%. Cross-platform pricing is tightly aligned, with 0.00-point spreads on every canonical outcome where both venues quote. The takeaway: Polymarket and Limitless both view Iran imposing formal Hormuz transit fees as unlikely in the near term, with only the longest deadline drawing meaningful probability.