Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

This market asks whether Israel and Lebanon will formally establish diplomatic relations before the end of 2026. On Polymarket, resolution requires both governments to officially announce the establishment of diplomatic ties by December 31, 2026, with official statements or a consensus of credible reporting serving as the source. A "Yes" outcome means normalization occurs in that window; "No" means it does not. Note that the Kalshi listing attached to this event actually tracks a related but distinct question about Israel and Qatar normalizing relations before 2027, so the two platforms are not pricing an identical contract. Across the platforms, "No" is the clear favourite. Kalshi implies a 93.0% probability of No (7.5% Yes), while Polymarket is somewhat less confident, pricing No at 85.5% and Yes at 14.5%. The consensus sits at roughly 93.0% No and 14.5% Yes, with Polymarket offering the cheapest entry into No at 85.5% and Kalshi the cheapest entry into Yes at 7.5%. The cross-platform spread is about 7 points on each side, which partly reflects that Polymarket is pricing Israel–Lebanon while Kalshi is pricing Israel–Qatar; both venues nonetheless agree that normalization before 2027 is unlikely.