Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

This event tracks whether Israel and Syria will formally establish diplomatic relations, a question listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi but with different resolution deadlines. Polymarket's market resolves "Yes" only if both governments officially announce diplomatic ties by December 31, 2025, whereas Kalshi's version gives a much longer runway, resolving "Yes" if normalization occurs before January 20, 2029. A "No" outcome on either venue means no such announcement is made within the respective window. Because the timeframes differ, the pricing diverges as expected. On Polymarket, "No" trades at 87.0% against "Yes" at 13.0%, reflecting skepticism that a deal materializes within the next few months. On Kalshi, where traders have until early 2029, "No" sits at 76.0% and "Yes" at 24.0%, implying markedly higher odds of normalization over the longer horizon. Polymarket also carries the vast majority of activity, with roughly $2.14 million in volume versus about $37,000 on Kalshi. The favourite across both platforms is "No," but the 11-point gap in "Yes" pricing (24.0% on Kalshi vs. 13.0% on Polymarket) is a timeframe effect rather than a genuine disagreement about the same question.