Israel closes its airspace by...?

This market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by a set deadline, with each dated tranche resolving "Yes" if a broad suspension of commercial aviation across Israel — or a majority of Israeli airspace — occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Narrow ground stops, isolated regional closures, or flight restrictions imposed by foreign airlines or governments do not qualify. Polymarket carries essentially all the volume, with roughly $30.9M traded, while Limitless lists the same question with negligible turnover. Across the headline tranche, traders overwhelmingly expect a qualifying closure to occur: the "Yes" outcome sits at a consensus 99.1% on Polymarket, with "No" priced at just 1.0%. Later dated sub-markets on Polymarket show "No" pinned at or near 100.0%, consistent with the event being treated as effectively already satisfied for the earliest deadlines and unresolved for later ones. Limitless separately shows a September 30 line at 50.0% and an August 31 line at 50.0%, but on trivial volume. The cross-platform takeaway: Polymarket, where liquidity is concentrated, treats a qualifying Israeli airspace closure as a near-certainty, while thinly traded Limitless quotes should be read with that liquidity gap in mind.