Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley

This market centers on the UFC 329 preliminary featherweight bout between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley, scheduled for July 11, 2026 on the McGregor vs. Holloway 2 card. Polymarket's main market resolves to whichever fighter is officially declared the winner, with draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi and Azuro list adjacent markets covering round of finish and total rounds props. Luke Riley is the clear favourite to win at a consensus 67.5%, with Polymarket pricing him at 67.5% and Azuro slightly higher at 70.4%. Kamaka III sits at 32.5% on Polymarket and 35.5% on Azuro — a roughly 3-point gap between platforms on both sides, though within a fairly tight range. On the props side, Polymarket's over/under markets lean heavily toward the fight going the distance, with "Over" outcomes priced as high as 81.5%. Kalshi implies a 21.0% chance the fight ends before round 2 and 29.0% before round 3, while Azuro's Over 2.5 rounds sits at 67.6% and Over 1.5 at 78.1%. Across platforms, pricing is broadly aligned: Riley is a solid but not overwhelming favourite, and the fight is expected to go deep into the scheduled rounds.