Kansas City vs New York M
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.9M | No liquidity56.2% | — | — | — | — | ||
Jac Caglianone: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Lane Thomas: 2+ | 24.0%Kalshi | $10.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nick Loftin: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Tolbert: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Lane Thomas: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $6.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nick Loftin: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Starling Marte: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $630 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Carson Benge: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $700 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jared Young: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $680 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brett Baty: 2+ | 37.0%Kalshi | $681 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
A.J. Ewing: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $7.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brett Baty: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Salvador Perez: 2+ | 41.0%Kalshi | $678 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Salvador Perez: 3+ | 49.0%Kalshi | $344 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Luis Torrens: 1+ | 49.0%Kalshi | $958 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Bo Bichette: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $760 | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mark Vientos: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $333 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Bo Bichette: 3+ | 45.0%Kalshi | $518 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Tolbert: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $631 | — | — | No liquidity33.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jac Caglianone: 3+ | 27.0%Kalshi | $409 | — | — | No liquidity94.0% | — | — | — | — |
Isaac Collins: 3+ | 26.0%Kalshi | $313 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Tolbert: 3+ | 19.0%Kalshi | $303 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Starling Marte: 4+ | 15.0%Kalshi | $176 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tyler Tolbert: 4+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $588 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Salvador Perez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.1K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
A.J. Ewing: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $593 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jared Young: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kansas City Royals | 0.5%Polymarket | $2.2M | No liquidity43.7% | — | — | — | — | ||
Jac Caglianone: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Isaac Collins: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Carson Benge: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.4K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Bo Bichette: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.7K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Francisco Alvarez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mark Vientos: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $783 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mets wins by over 5.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mets wins by over 6.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $502 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mets wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $30.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The market centers on the July 9, 2026 MLB matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets, with the moneyline resolving to whichever team wins the game outright. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Azuro all list the head-to-head, while Kalshi additionally offers a deep menu of derivative markets covering the run spread, total runs, and inning-by-inning outcomes. The Mets are the modest favourite on the moneyline, priced at 58.0% on Kalshi, 57.5% on Polymarket, and 56.2% on Azuro — a tight 0.5-point spread across venues that implies roughly a 57–58% win probability. The Royals sit at 43.0% on Kalshi, 42.5% on Polymarket, and 43.7% on Azuro, with Azuro also pricing a 12.6% draw due to its three-way format. On the totals side, Kalshi's ladder implies a run environment centered around 8.5–9.5 runs, with Over 8.5 at 57.0% and Over 9.5 at 46.0%. Spread markets show the Mets favoured to win by more than 1.5 runs at 41.0%, while a Kansas City win by 1.5+ sits at 33.0%. Volume is thin at roughly $5.8K total, with Kalshi's moneyline ($2,751) leading activity. The takeaway: all three platforms agree New York is a slight favourite, and the sub-one-point cross-platform spread leaves little disagreement on the game's shape.
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