Lagerbohm vs Rivera

This event covered the men's singles match between Linus Lagerbohm and Leyton Rivera at the ITF M15 Lodz semifinal, originally scheduled for July 11, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offered head-to-head markets on the winner, with Kalshi additionally framing the outcome as a Yes/No question on Lagerbohm advancing. Kalshi's version specified that a walkover or pre-match cancellation would resolve to 50/50, while Polymarket applied that rule only to walkovers and unplayed matches. By the snapshot on July 12, the market had effectively converged on Lagerbohm. Kalshi priced him at 99.0% and Polymarket at 99.5%, giving a consensus of 99.0% and a cross-platform spread of just 0.5 points. Rivera was correspondingly quoted at 1.0% on Kalshi and 0.5% on Polymarket. Turnover was heavily concentrated on Kalshi, which recorded roughly $440,687 in volume versus about $3,241 on Polymarket, though Polymarket carried more resting liquidity at around $128,964. Kalshi and Polymarket agreed almost exactly, treating Lagerbohm as a near-certain winner with only a fractional gap between the two books.