LDU Quito vs Delfin SC

This is a live LigaPro Primera A fixture between host LDU Quito and visiting Delfin SC, played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito and listed across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Azuro. The snapshot — taken just before 2 AM UTC on August 4, moments after the match concluded — captures markets in a heavily resolved state, with most "No" and "Under" outcomes sitting near 99%, reflecting a final scoreline that has already settled the vast majority of proposition bets. The headline match-winner market places Delfin SC as the narrow favourite at 57.0%, with LDU Quito at 13.0% and Draw at 30.0% across Kalshi and Polymarket. Fox Sports shows the final as LDU Quito 2–1 Delfin SC, with Janner Corozo and Franco Ayunta as the respective scorers, meaning the live market probabilities here reflect a state mid-resolution. Kalshi prices Delfin SC at 57.0% versus Polymarket's 52.1%, a modest 4.9-point spread — the widest meaningful divergence in the data. On total goals, Kalshi puts "Over 0.5" at 98.0% and "Over 1.5" at 52.0%, consistent with a two-goal-plus result. Historically, LDU Quito have won 11 of the last 17 home meetings against Delfin, going unbeaten at home in their last 14 encounters, providing structural backing for the hosts. Across all platforms, spreads are negligible except on the outright winner market, where Azuro's 49.0% LDU Quito line diverges sharply from Kalshi's 13.0% — likely a data artefact from pre-match pricing not yet refreshed. The broader cross-platform consensus is tight, with Kalshi dominating volume at over $897,000 on the main match market alone.