Lim vs Colmegna

This market covers the ITF W75 The Hague Round of 32 women's singles tennis match between Jenny Lim and Martina Colmegna, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026. Both listings resolve to the player who advances, with slightly different handling of edge cases: Polymarket treats a walkover as 50-50, while Kalshi resolves to $0.50 only if no ball is played, and treats mid-match retirements as a loss for the retiring player. Pricing across platforms points overwhelmingly to Jenny Lim. On Polymarket she is quoted at 99.9%, while Kalshi has her at 99.0%, giving a consensus around 99.0%. Martina Colmegna is priced at 1.0% on Kalshi and effectively 0.0% on Polymarket. Kalshi carries essentially all of the liquidity here, with roughly $40,648 in volume and $34,084 in listed liquidity, compared with just $939 in volume on Polymarket. Lim is the clear favourite by a margin of roughly 98 percentage points, a level typically associated with a heavy mismatch on paper rather than a competitive contest. The cross-platform spread on her price is under one point, so despite the thin Polymarket book, both venues agree that a Lim win is the near-certain outcome.