Liu vs Simes

This event centers on a Round of 16 match at the W35 Wagga Wagga, an ITF Women's tournament, pitting Yuhan Liu against Ashleigh Simes. Each market resolves to the player who advances; walkovers and non-starts generally resolve 50-50 on Polymarket, while Kalshi's rules push cancellations to $0.50 and treat in-match retirements as a loss for the withdrawing player. Alongside the straight match winner, the listings include ancillary totals markets (over/under lines on games) that are already pricing near their extremes. Ashleigh Simes is the clear favourite to advance, with a cross-platform consensus of 92.5%. Pricing is tight at the top: Polymarket has her at 99.9% and Kalshi at 99.0%, while Polymarket US sits noticeably lower at 94.0%. Correspondingly, Yuhan Liu is quoted at just 0.1% on Polymarket and 1.0% on Kalshi, but a comparatively generous 9.0% on Polymarket US. Liquidity is heavily concentrated on Kalshi, which accounts for essentially all of the $2.83M in volume on the event. The cross-platform takeaway: all venues agree Simes is the heavy favourite, but Polymarket US is the clear outlier, pricing Liu several points higher than Polymarket or Kalshi.