Los Angeles A vs Minnesota
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Twins Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.7M | No liquidity62.5% | — | — | — | — | ||
Luke Keaschall: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $365 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Denzer Guzman: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $252 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Nolan Schanuel: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $445 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ryan Jeffers: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $402 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Trevor Larnach: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $533 | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Luke Keaschall: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $249 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ryan Jeffers: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Trevor Larnach: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nolan Schanuel: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Denzer Guzman: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Josh Lowe: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Ryan Kreidler: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $292 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Kody Clemens: 2+ | 54.0%Kalshi | $320 | — | — | No liquidity39.0% | — | — | — | — |
Royce Lewis: 2+ | 44.0%Kalshi | $326 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Josh Bell: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Twins wins by over 4.5 runs | 16.0%Kalshi | $1.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Alan Roden: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $321 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Kody Clemens: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.6K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Josh Bell: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Zach Neto: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $161 | — | — | No liquidity45.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jorge Soler: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $249 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Logan O'Hoppe: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $293 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Brooks Lee: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
Jorge Soler: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.2K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Royce Lewis: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $902 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Oswald Peraza: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $182 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Los Angeles Angels Widest spread 0.9% | 0.1%Polymarket | $847.7K | No liquidity38.9% | — | — | — | — | ||
Josh Lowe: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $213 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Zach Neto: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET. On both Polymarket and Kalshi, the contract resolves to the winning team, with provisions to remain open through short postponements and to void or pay out fairly if the game is cancelled outright. The Twins are the favourite across both venues. Polymarket implies a 59.5% chance of a Minnesota win against 40.5% for the Angels, while Kalshi has Minnesota at 59.0% and Los Angeles at 42.0%. That gives Minnesota an edge of roughly 17 to 19 percentage points, a clear but not overwhelming favourite consistent with a mid-season home-side lean. Kalshi's paired Yes/No contract on a Los Angeles win (59.0% No, 41.0% Yes) lines up closely with the same read. Cross-platform pricing is remarkably tight: the Twins sit within half a point across Polymarket and Kalshi, and the Angels within 1.5 points, with no meaningful arbitrage gap. Liquidity is heavier on Polymarket ($27,915) while traded volume so far is concentrated on Kalshi ($3,300). The takeaway is a consensus market with Minnesota favoured near 59% and virtually no disagreement between the two venues.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.