Maine Senate Election Winner

The Maine Senate Election Winner market tracks the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Maine, with contracts settling based on which party — or specific candidate — takes the seat. Polymarket's market resolves via AP, Fox News, and NBC calls, or official certification if no consensus emerges. Kalshi's listing is framed around party control of the Maine State Senate, a related but distinct question, which is worth noting when comparing prices directly. Across platforms, the Democratic outcome sits as the favourite at a consensus 69.5%, versus 30.5% for Republicans. On Polymarket, where the bulk of volume ($1.16M) resides, Democrats are priced at 69.0% and Republicans at 30.5%. Kalshi, with far thinner activity ($5,173 volume), prices Democrats at 98.0% and Republicans at 85.0% — figures that reflect a different underlying question (state legislative control) rather than the federal seat. On the candidate-level Polymarket US market, Troy Jackson (D) trades at 66.0% against Susan Collins (R) at 36.0%. The 28.5-point spread on the Democratic line and 54.5-point spread on the Republican line between Kalshi and Polymarket largely reflect the mismatch between state-legislature and federal-Senate framings rather than a pure pricing disagreement.