Maine Senate winner? (Party) — In 2026

The 2026 U.S. Senate race in Maine is being traded as a party-outcome market, resolving to whichever candidate wins the general election. Kalshi carries the bulk of activity, with roughly $3.94 million in volume and $2.13 million in liquidity, while Gemini has drawn only about $1,097 in volume so far. Named contenders quoted across the two venues include Democrat Troy Jackson, Republican incumbent Susan Collins, and — on Gemini's board only — Graham Platner, Janet Mills, and Tucker Favreau, each currently priced at 0.0%. Troy Jackson is the consensus favourite at 65.5%, sitting at 66.0% on Kalshi and 73.0% on Gemini. Susan Collins trails as the clear second choice, priced at 35.0% on Kalshi and 42.0% on Gemini, for a consensus of 34.5%. The roughly 31-point gap between Jackson and Collins on the aggregated view signals traders lean toward a Democratic pickup, though Collins remains materially in the running. The most notable cross-platform spread is on Jackson himself, whom Gemini prices seven points higher than Kalshi (73.0% vs 66.0%); Collins shows a similar gap in the opposite direction. Overall, both venues agree Jackson is favoured, but the thinly traded Gemini book is more bullish on the frontrunner than the deeper Kalshi market.