Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor

UFC 329 pits Max Holloway against Conor McGregor in a welterweight main card bout scheduled for July 11, 2026, with prediction markets pricing both the winner and a range of round-by-round and over/under props. Polymarket resolves the headline market on the official UFC winner declaration, with a draw, no contest, or postponement beyond July 25 resolving 50-50. Kalshi lists round-of-finish markets, while Azuro carries its own moneyline. Holloway is the clear favourite at a 72.0% consensus, priced at 72.0% on Polymarket and 70.9% on Azuro. McGregor sits at 31.7% consensus, with Azuro offering him at 31.7% versus 29.0% on Polymarket — a 2.65-point spread and the widest cross-platform gap in the event. Kalshi's round markets imply the fight is more likely than not to end early: 71.0% chance it finishes before round 5, 62.0% before round 4, 43.0% before round 3, and 24.0% before round 2. Liquidity is heavily concentrated on Polymarket, which accounts for essentially all of the roughly $7.1M in volume. The cross-platform takeaway: markets align on Holloway as a solid favourite of roughly 40 points over McGregor, with only minor pricing differences between Polymarket and Azuro on the moneyline.