Memphis vs Golden State

This is a closed event covering the NBA Summer League game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors played on July 14, 2026, with markets listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Azuro. The core moneyline question — which team wins the game — is the highest-volume market, with Kalshi drawing $2.88M and Polymarket $213K, for a combined total of over $3.09M. Both Kalshi and Polymarket, which offer the most liquid and comparable data, converged firmly on Memphis as the winner at 99.5% (Polymarket) and 99.0% (Kalshi), reflecting a post-game settled state. Memphis defeated Golden State 106–85 in the 2026 NBA Summer League in Las Vegas. The first half was closely contested with nine ties and four lead changes, but Memphis dominated the second half, building a lead of as much as 27 points. The Grizzlies shot 17-for-32 from three-point range, led by Javon Small's 26 points, four rebounds, and seven assists. Pre-game, the market told a different story: Golden State was favored by 5.5 points heading into the game, having gone 2–0 in Las Vegas with an 18-point average margin of victory, while Memphis was on a quick turnaround after losing outright as a double-digit favorite the night before. Azuro is the notable outlier in the snapshot, showing the Golden State Warriors at 66.0–68.0% in some markets and Memphis at roughly 37.5–39.8% — figures that appear to reflect pre-game lines that were never updated to reflect the final result. By contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi both sit at or near 99.0–99.5% for Memphis across every outcome dimension, consistent with a settled, closed market. The cross-platform spread on the moneyline outcome is effectively zero between Polymarket and Kalshi, though Azuro's stale pre-game pricing creates a dramatic superficial divergence. Overall, the market is fully resolved in Memphis's favour, with Kalshi and Polymarket in lockstep and Azuro's data standing as an artefact of pre-game odds.