Mjallby AIF vs AIK

This Allsvenskan fixture pits Mjällby AIF against AIK at Strandvallen, with kickoff on Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 13:00 UTC. Polymarket and Kalshi both offer three markets — a home win, an away win, and a draw — resolving on the 90-minute result including stoppage time. The home side, Mjällby AIF, sits as a clear favourite at a consensus 49.5%, priced 49.5% on Polymarket and 49.0% on Kalshi. AIK trails on 25.5% (Polymarket) and 27.0% (Kalshi), essentially level with the draw at 25.5% consensus (25.0% on Kalshi, 25.5% on Polymarket). Cross-platform spreads are effectively zero across all three outcomes. The market's confidence in Mjällby is striking given AIK's historical dominance of the fixture — the two teams have played 26 games since 2005, with AIK winning 13 to Mjällby's 4 and nine draws. What has flipped expectations is Mjällby's status as reigning champions: the tiny team from a remote fishing village next to the Baltic Sea won the Swedish league title for one of the most remarkable achievements in European soccer. AIK, meanwhile, come in bruised, having lost 0-3 at home to league-leading Sirius on May 30 and carrying multiple injury absentees including Wilson, Cissé and Ellingsen. With near-identical pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket, the market gives Mjällby roughly a two-to-one edge over either an AIK win or a stalemate.