MLB: Batting Average Leader

This market resolves to whichever qualified hitter finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average, with a defined tiebreaker chain running through hits, doubles, home runs, and finally alphabetical order by last name. It's listed on Polymarket, where roughly $1.34M has traded, and mirrored on Polymarket US. Yordan Alvarez sits as the consensus favourite at 43.0%, narrowly ahead of Luis Arraez at 41.5%. The gap is slim enough that the race effectively looks like a two-horse contest, with a long tail of contenders — Alec Burleson (17.0%), Brendan Donovan (16.0%), Michael Harris II (15.0%), Jake Mangum (14.5%) and Juan Soto (14.0%) — each carrying non-trivial but distant chances. The cross-platform pricing is where things get interesting. Alvarez trades at 35.5% on Polymarket versus 61.0% on Polymarket US, a striking 25-point gap. Burleson shows a similar pattern (0.4% on Polymarket, 33.0% on Polymarket US), as do Jeremy Peña, Drake Baldwin, Jacob Wilson, and Andy Pages, all of whom read near zero on Polymarket but double-digit on Polymarket US. The takeaway: the two venues broadly agree on Arraez but diverge sharply on Alvarez and several mid-tier names, leaving the favourite's true implied probability meaningfully unsettled between books.