MLB: Home Runs Leader

This market resolves to whichever hitter records the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season, with a defined tiebreaker cascade (slugging percentage, then batting average, then hits, then alphabetical last name). If the season is cancelled or postponed past October 15, 2026 without an official leader, it resolves to "Other." It is listed on Polymarket, which carries essentially all of the $3.14M in volume, and on Polymarket US, which currently shows no volume or liquidity. Kyle Schwarber is the clear favourite at a 38.5% consensus, well ahead of Yordan Alvarez at 25.1%, Junior Caminero at 22.8%, and Matt Olson at 17.0%. Ben Rice rounds out the top tier at 15.9%. The gap between Schwarber and Alvarez — roughly 13 points — signals meaningful separation but far from a lock, consistent with a season-long stat race where the leader typically prices in the 30–40% range. The most notable cross-platform divergence is on Schwarber himself: Polymarket US quotes him at 45.0% versus 32.0% on Polymarket, a 13-point spread. Ben Rice also shows a wide gap, at 15.9% on Polymarket versus just 4.0% on Polymarket US. The takeaway: consensus favours Schwarber, but the two Polymarket venues disagree materially on both his ceiling and Rice's chances.