Mushuc Runa vs Libertad Loja

This is a Round 22 Liga Pro Serie A match between Mushuc Runa and Libertad Loja, played at Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa in Ambato, Ecuador. The Kalshi moneyline market resolves on the 90-minute result only — no extra time or penalties — with separate outcomes for a Mushuc Runa win, a draw, or a Libertad Loja win. The current favourite on Kalshi is a **Draw at 53.0%**, a notably elevated probability that reflects how evenly matched these two sides are right now. Both clubs sit near the bottom of the table — Mushuc Runa 13th and Libertad Loja 14th out of 16 — and both carry an identical overall form score of 47/100. Mushuc Runa is priced at 36.0% on Kalshi, while Libertad Loja trails at just 13.0%. Traditional sportsbooks are considerably more bullish on the home side — Oddspedia places Mushuc Runa as favourites at odds of 1.57 — a sharp contrast to Kalshi's draw-leaning market. Azuro's standalone Mushuc Runa win probability of 66.2% similarly diverges from Kalshi's 36.0%, the most striking cross-platform gap in this snapshot. On the totals side, Kalshi prices over 0.5 goals at 58.0% but over 1.5 at only 17.0%, pointing to expectations of a low-scoring or goalless affair — consistent with both teams' recent struggles to find the net, with Mushuc Runa failing to score in three of eleven home matches and Libertad Loja netting in only six of eleven away games. The broad takeaway across platforms is that Kalshi's market leans heavily toward a stalemate between two bottom-half sides in poor form, while Azuro's lines favour a Mushuc Runa home win — a meaningful divergence that makes the draw and home-win markets worth watching as the match progresses.