NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Larson Favorite | 40.0%Polymarket US | $435.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Denny Hamlin | 29.0%Kalshi | $659.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Christopher Bell | 11.0%Kalshi | $309.3K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Joey Logano Widest spread 3.5% | 7.0%Kalshi | $362.2K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Ryan Blaney | 7.0%Kalshi | $409.6K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Chase Briscoe | 4.0%Polymarket US | $268.0K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Tyler Reddick | 1.0%Kalshi | $537.6K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Ty Gibbs | 1.0%Kalshi | $251.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Bubba Wallace | 1.0%Kalshi | $231.5K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Austin Cindric | 1.0%Kalshi | $64.4K | — | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The market covers the outright winner of the NASCAR Cup Series championship, with the season running from early February to mid-November 2026. Each outcome represents a specific driver lifting the title; the field is broad, with more than 35 drivers priced across Kalshi and Polymarket US. Kalshi carries essentially all of the liquidity, with roughly $4.1 million in volume and $2.6 million in resting depth, while Polymarket US shows quotes but no recorded volume in this snapshot. Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at a 40.0% consensus, priced at 43.0% on Polymarket US and 41.0% on Kalshi. That is a substantial gap over the next tier: Ryan Blaney at 10.5%, Tyler Reddick at 9.0%, and Christopher Bell at 8.0%. Ty Gibbs (7.5%), Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe (both 5.5%) round out the contenders priced above the pack. Cross-platform spreads are mostly modest at the top, but longshots diverge sharply: Polymarket US floors many drivers such as Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Bubba Wallace and Connor Zilisch at 4.0%, while Kalshi prices the same names at 1.0%, a 3-point gap. Overall, the two venues agree Hamlin is the runaway favourite and differ mainly on how much residual probability to assign to the long tail.
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