Netanyahu out by...?

This market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will resign, be removed, or otherwise leave the office of Israeli Prime Minister before December 31, 2026. A "Yes" resolution requires only an announcement of departure — not the actual handover of power. "No" resolves if he remains in office through the deadline. The market is essentially a coin flip. On Polymarket, which accounts for nearly all of the $124.5 million in volume, Yes and No are priced at 50.0% each. Limitless mirrors this almost exactly, with No at 50.7% and Yes at 50.0% — a negligible spread of zero cross-platform points, reflecting near-perfect agreement between the two venues. The razor-thin odds reflect a genuinely uncertain political situation. Israel's Knesset dissolved in July, kicking off a campaign for national elections on October 27, with Netanyahu's political survival seen as a central referendum. Prominent Ashkenazi Haredi leaders declared an end to their longstanding alliance with Netanyahu in May, and the coalition chairman submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset and head to early elections. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have since announced the formation of a new joint party to contest the October vote. However, the market resolves on departure from office by year-end — not on election outcomes — and Netanyahu's term formally runs until the scheduled October 2026 election, with analysts noting it is "very, very unlikely" he would resign voluntarily before that point. With elections set for late October and the resolution deadline at December 31, the outcome hinges almost entirely on whether post-election coalition negotiations produce a new government in time. Both Polymarket and Limitless converge at roughly 50/50, signalling that markets view neither outcome as having a clear edge.