Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released on...?
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Result | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 7 Winner | Won | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | No liquidity99.6% | — |
On or prior to October 1 Eliminated | Lost | $196 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$196 | — |
October 2 Eliminated | Lost | $153 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$153 | — |
October 3 Eliminated | Lost | $173 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$173 | — |
October 4 Eliminated | Lost | $216 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$216 | — |
October 5 Eliminated | Lost | $342 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$342 | — |
October 6 Eliminated | Lost | $204 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$204 | — |
October 8 Eliminated | Lost | $938 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$938 | — |
October 9 Eliminated | Lost | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$1.4K | — |
October 10 Eliminated | Lost | $205 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$205 | — |
October 11 Eliminated | Lost | $229 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$229 | — |
October 12 Eliminated | Lost | $426 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$426 | — |
October 13 Eliminated | Lost | $540 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$540 | — |
October 14 Eliminated | Lost | $745 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$745 | — |
October 15 Eliminated | Lost | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$1.3K | — |
October 16 Eliminated | Lost | $611 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$611 | — |
October 17 Eliminated | Lost | $441 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$441 | — |
October 18 Eliminated | Lost | $276 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$276 | — |
October 19 Eliminated | Lost | $1.2K | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$1.2K | — |
October 20 Eliminated | Lost | $239 | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$239 | — |
Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Discussion (0)
Log in to join the discussion.
No comments yet — start the discussion.