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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Starts:Oct 2, 2026, 10:15 PMEnds:Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM
AZRGMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Tech & Science favorite hit rate90.4% (13,315)
Total volume
$24.1K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
30
Platforms
1
Markets
1

Markets

Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.

No release by October 31Favorite
16.1%Best · Polymarket$6.1K
October 14
20.0%Best · Polymarket$917
October 16
12.1%Best · Polymarket$1.4K
October 13
11.7%Best · Polymarket$123
October 15
11.4%Best · Polymarket$1.6K
October 12
9.9%Best · Polymarket$86
October 21
9.7%Best · Polymarket$840
October 17
9.2%Best · Polymarket$61
October 26
7.1%Best · Polymarket$773
October 19
6.7%Best · Polymarket$1.5K
October 29
7.0%Best · Polymarket$828
October 22
7.0%Best · Polymarket$221
October 28
6.4%Best · Polymarket$259
October 20
5.3%Best · Polymarket$260
October 27
3.8%Best · Polymarket$930
October 11
3.7%Best · Polymarket$568
October 8
2.5%Best · Polymarket$1.1K
October 10
2.0%Best · Polymarket$508

Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Category

Tech & Science