Next French Presidential Election

This market asks who will win France's 2027 presidential election, scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a potential runoff on May 2. President Emmanuel Macron cannot seek a third consecutive term, leaving a wide-open field. The two-round system means that unless a candidate clears 50% outright, only the top two advance to a decisive runoff. Marine Le Pen is the clear market favourite at a consensus 61.0% across platforms, with Polymarket — by far the most liquid venue at $128.9M in volume — pricing her at 35.4% on an individual-outcome basis, while Kalshi and Gemini each sit at 38.0%. The most striking cross-platform anomaly is Polymarket US, which lists her at 64.0%, a 25+ percentage-point gap versus the other platforms, suggesting a structural difference in how that venue's market is constructed rather than a genuine disagreement among bettors. Édouard Philippe is the clear runner-up at a 30.5% consensus, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon a distant third at 12.5%. The backdrop explains much of Le Pen's dominant positioning. She was originally sentenced to four years in prison and five years of ineligibility from holding public office over misuse of EU funds, but a court shortened the ban on her running for office, allowing her to confirm her candidacy in July 2026. She says she'll run despite being sentenced to wear a court-ordered electronic monitor, setting up a fourth presidential campaign while subject to monitoring. In polling, Le Pen dwarfs all other candidates with between 34%–35.5% of first-round votes — around 13%–20% more than any rival, though France's divided centre and left have yet to produce a rival capable of stopping her. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini, and Limitless, Le Pen's lead is consistent; the Polymarket US outlier aside, platforms are broadly aligned on her as the favourite by a comfortable margin.