Next French Presidential Election

This market tracks who will win the 2027 French presidential election, held via France's two-round system in which a candidate needs over 50% to win outright, otherwise the top two finishers face a runoff. Each outcome represents a named potential candidate winning that contest, with the market resolving to "Other" if results aren't known by the end of 2027. Marine Le Pen is the clear favourite with a 48.0% consensus probability, pricing between 46.9% on Polymarket and 51.5% on Polymarket US — a notable 4.65-point spread. This follows an appeals court ruling in which an appeal court upheld her 2025 conviction for embezzling €2.8 million of public funds but reduced her sentence, lifting her election ban, making her eligible to run despite having to campaign under an electronic tag. She subsequently confirmed her candidacy, telling French television that "There is no longer any scenario in which I could not run in 2027." Behind her, Édouard Philippe sits a distant second at 16.5%, followed by David Lisnard at 12.6% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10.0%. Raphaël Glucksmann (4.9%) and François Hollande (3.6%) round out the next tier, with Hollande showing one of the widest spreads (3.85 points) between Polymarket's 1.7% and Kalshi/Polymarket US readings near 5.5%. Dozens of other figures, including Jordan Bardella, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau, trade below 1.5%, reflecting long-shot status rather than active contention. Overall, while Le Pen's legal clearance to run has solidified her position as the clear frontrunner near 48%, the meaningful spreads across Polymarket, Kalshi, Polymarket US, Gemini, and Limitless—particularly around her and Hollande—suggest platforms have not yet fully converged on pricing this still-distant 2027 race.