Next government of the United Kingdom? — Before Jan 1, 2030
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Labour majority | 17.0%Kalshi | $1.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition | 10.0%Kalshi | $311 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour minority | 9.3%Kalshi | $191 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support | 9.1%Kalshi | $144 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition | 9.0%Kalshi | $139 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support | 8.3%Kalshi | $139 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour minority + SNP support | 7.5%Kalshi | $171 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Labour minority + Green support | 7.2%Kalshi | $166 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.
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