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Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?

Starts:Oct 28, 2026, 9:52 PMEnds:Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM
GMIKSHLMTNVGPLYPMU
Tech & Science favorite hit rate90.2% (18,153)
Total volume
$13.5K
Largest spread
—
Outcomes
32
Platforms
1
Markets
1

Markets

Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.

No release by November 30Favorite
63.0%Best · Polymarket$2.6K
November 26
12.0%Best · Polymarket$497
November 23
8.3%Best · Polymarket$296
November 13
8.0%Best · Polymarket$372
November 8
6.5%Best · Polymarket$235
November 10
5.0%Best · Polymarket$346
November 14
4.0%Best · Polymarket$291
November 30
4.0%Best · Polymarket$266
November 15
3.0%Best · Polymarket$277
November 21
3.0%Best · Polymarket$444
November 28
3.0%Best · Polymarket$309
November 11
2.9%Best · Polymarket$276
November 12
2.9%Best · Polymarket$355
November 22
2.0%Best · Polymarket$359
November 25
2.0%Best · Polymarket$285
November 29
2.0%Best · Polymarket$298

Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Tech & Science