Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Lowden Favorite | 42.5%Polymarket | $339.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
Callum Turner Widest spread 18.7% | 19.3%Polymarket | $616.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
No Bond chosen | 21.3%Polymarket | $447.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Harris Dickinson | 3.9%Polymarket | $132.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jack O'Connell | 3.3%Polymarket | $37.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 0.5%Polymarket | $303.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jack Barton | 6.0%Kalshi | $81.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
George MacKay | 11.0%Kalshi | $7.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tom Francis | 2.7%Polymarket | $61.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jonathan Bailey | 0.2%Polymarket | $32.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Josh O'Connor | 0.8%Polymarket | $128.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
Theo James | 0.8%Polymarket | $114.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Scott Rose-Marsh | 4.0%Kalshi | $17.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Henry Ashton | 4.0%Kalshi | $11.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Paul Mescal | 0.5%Polymarket | $19.4K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jacob Elordi | 0.4%Polymarket | $300.3K | — | — | — | — | ||
Damson Idris | 4.0%Kalshi | $50.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Henry Cavill | 0.7%Polymarket | $117.4K | — | — | — | — | ||
Nicholas Hoult | 4.0%Kalshi | $24.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Richard Madden | 1.0%Kalshi | $30.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
James Norton | 0.1%Polymarket | $54.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Regé-Jean Page | 4.0%Kalshi | $23.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Robert Pattinson | 2.0%Kalshi | $6.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Aaron Pierre | 2.0%Kalshi | $38.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tom Holland | 0.3%Polymarket | $89.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
Idris Elba | 1.0%Kalshi | $75.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cillian Murphy | 1.0%Kalshi | $23.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Charlie Hunnam | 1.0%Kalshi | $21.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tom Hardy | 0.4%Polymarket | $30.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
Tom Blyth | 0.4%Polymarket | $18.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Nicholas Galitzine | 0.3%Polymarket | $6.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks who will be cast as the next James Bond, with Kalshi's version resolving on the next film in the official Bond series and Polymarket's version resolving "Yes" if a specific actor is officially announced by Amazon MGM Studios before the end of 2026. A "No Bond chosen" outcome exists for the scenario in which no casting is confirmed in time. Combined volume across the two platforms sits near $2.1 million, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of activity. Callum Turner leads the consensus at 29.5%, narrowly ahead of Jack Lowden at 27.8%, with "No Bond chosen" third at 21.6%. Below that tier, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Jacob Elordi share 12.5%, followed by Tom Francis at 10.5% and Josh O'Connor at 7.0%. The tight gap between Turner and Lowden suggests traders see the race as effectively a two-horse contest rather than a clear frontrunner. The most striking spreads sit on Turner himself, priced 30.0% on Kalshi versus 17.0% on Polymarket — a 12.5-point gap — along with Aaron Taylor-Johnson (13.0% Kalshi vs 2.4% Polymarket) and Jacob Elordi (13.0% vs 3.6%). These divergences likely reflect Polymarket's tighter 2026 announcement window versus Kalshi's open-ended casting resolution, meaning Kalshi consistently prices contenders higher than Polymarket across the field.
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