Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Callum Turner FavoriteWidest spread 7.6% | 37.2%Polymarket | $968.9K | — | — | — | |||
Josh O'Connor | 25.4%Polymarket | $331.9K | — | — | — | |||
Jack Lowden | 17.6%Polymarket | $683.8K | — | — | — | |||
Robert Pattinson | 19.0%Kalshi | $217.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
No Bond chosen | 15.2%Polymarket | $680.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nicholas Hoult | 15.0%Kalshi | $46.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nicholas Galitzine | 0.1%Polymarket | $32.3K | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | ||
Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 0.7%Polymarket | $352.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jack Barton | 2.4%Polymarket | $167.9K | — | — | — | |||
Harris Dickinson | 0.3%Polymarket | $190.3K | — | — | — | — | ||
Theo James | 0.7%Polymarket | $167.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jacob Elordi | 1.3%Polymarket | $429.9K | — | — | — | |||
Aaron Pierre | 4.0%Kalshi | $56.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Damson Idris | 3.0%Kalshi | $74.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tom Holland | 0.1%Polymarket | $140.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
Tom Francis | 1.3%Polymarket | $113.4K | — | — | — | |||
Jack O'Connell | 0.2%Polymarket | $113.2K | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | ||
James Norton | 0.6%Polymarket | $104.6K | — | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | ||
Paul Mescal | 0.1%Polymarket | $59.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
Regé-Jean Page | 2.0%Kalshi | $38.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Idris Elba | 2.0%Kalshi | $94.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tom Blyth | 0.1%Polymarket | $33.0K | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | ||
Tom Hardy | 0.1%Polymarket | $58.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
Jonathan Bailey | 0.1%Polymarket | $46.4K | — | — | — | — | ||
George MacKay | 2.0%Kalshi | $23.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Henry Cavill | 0.1%Polymarket | $181.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Charlie Hunnam | 2.0%Kalshi | $21.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Scott Rose-Marsh | 2.0%Kalshi | $23.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Henry Ashton | 2.0%Kalshi | $12.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
David Gyasi | 2.0%Kalshi | $5.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Richard Madden | 0.2%Polymarket | $83.0K | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | ||
Joe Alwyn | 0.2%Polymarket | $35.8K | — | — | — | No liquidity49.0% | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks which actor will be cast as the next James Bond, with each outcome naming a candidate. It is listed on Kalshi and Polymarket with about $5.0 million in combined volume. Polymarket US also lists it but has no volume or liquidity. The deadlines differ. Kalshi's contract runs to before 2030 and covers the next official film in the series. Polymarket requires an official announcement by December 31, 2026, and resolves to "No Bond chosen" if none comes. Callum Turner is the clear favourite at a 65.5% consensus. That is roughly three times the 21.4% for second-placed Jack Lowden, signalling that traders see a fairly concentrated race. "No Bond chosen," offered only on Polymarket, sits at 11.9%. The rest of the field trails in single digits, including Robert Pattinson at 8.5% and Nicholas Hoult at 7.0%, both quoted only on Kalshi. The widest gap is on Turner, whom Kalshi prices at 71.0% against 60.1% on Polymarket, a spread of about 11 points. Lowden shows a smaller split of 23.5% on Kalshi versus 19.3% on Polymarket. Kalshi is also notably richer on Jack Barton (10.5% vs 3.4%) and Aaron Taylor-Johnson (6.5% vs 0.2%). Part of this may reflect Kalshi's longer resolution window. Overall, Kalshi consistently prices named candidates higher than Polymarket, most materially for the frontrunner, Callum Turner.
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