NL MVP Winner? — 2026 season
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pete Crow-Armstrong Favorite | 98.0%Kalshi | $1.4M | — | No liquidity95.0% | — | — | — | ||
James Wood | 0.1%Polymarket US | $156.8K | — | — | — | — | |||
Shohei Ohtani | 2.0%Polymarket US | $1.3M | — | — | — | — | |||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks who will win the National League MVP Award for the 2026 MLB season, resolving after the season concludes in December 2026. It is listed on both Kalshi, which carries the bulk of the activity with roughly $2.92M in volume, and Gemini, where volume is much thinner at around $11.5K. Dozens of candidates are quoted, but the field has clearly narrowed to a two-horse race. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the current favourite at a 59.0% consensus, priced at 61.0% on Gemini and 57.0% on Kalshi. Shohei Ohtani sits second at 41.5% consensus, quoted 43.0% on Gemini and 40.0% on Kalshi. Together the two candidates account for essentially the entire probability mass, with a Tie/Co-Winners outcome at 2.0% and every other named player — including Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Elly De La Cruz and Paul Skenes — pinned at 1.0–1.5%. The cross-platform spread on the top two names is a modest 2.5 points, with Kalshi consistently pricing Crow-Armstrong slightly lower and Ohtani slightly higher than Gemini. Overall, the market treats the 2026 NL MVP as a Crow-Armstrong versus Ohtani contest, with Kalshi marginally more sceptical of the favourite.
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