NL Rookie of the Year Winner? — 2026 season

This market asks who will win the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award, with resolution tied to the official announcement at the end of the MLB season in December. It is listed on both Kalshi, where the bulk of the roughly $2.6M in volume sits, and Gemini, where activity is much thinner. Traders can back any of a long list of named rookies, plus a "Tie/Co-Winners" contingency. JJ Wetherholt is the clear favourite at a 55.0% consensus, trailed by Sal Stewart at 35.0%. Together those two absorb about 90% of the implied probability, leaving Carson Benge at 11.5% and Nolan McLean at 8.0% as the only other names in double digits or close to it. Every remaining candidate sits at 2.0% or below, indicating the field views this as a two-horse race with a modest lean toward Wetherholt rather than a runaway. Cross-platform pricing is broadly aligned, but Gemini is consistently more bullish on Wetherholt (57.0%) than Kalshi (53.0%), a 2.5-point spread, and similarly prices McLean at 10.0% versus Kalshi's 8.0%. Kalshi, meanwhile, marginally favours Stewart at 35.0% against Gemini's 37.0%. The takeaway: both venues agree Wetherholt leads Stewart, with only minor disagreement on how wide that lead is.