Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

This market asks who will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with the announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee scheduled for October 9, 2026. Each outcome resolves "Yes" if that individual or organisation is named the laureate, with Polymarket applying a defined precedence order for joint winners. There are 287 candidates nominated for 2026, consisting of 208 individuals and 79 organisations, making this an exceptionally wide field with no dominant frontrunner. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) leads the prediction-market consensus at 13.5%, priced at 14.0% on Kalshi. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) sit close behind at a 13.1% consensus, though with a notable 2.6-point spread between Polymarket (13.1%) and Kalshi (11.0%). The ERRs' recognition combined with their continued work on the ground in Sudan helps explain their strong standing. Save the Children follows at 11.0% consensus, with a modest 1.2-point cross-platform spread. Traders appear to price in that the Norwegian Nobel Committee tends to avoid polarising political figures, which keeps Donald Trump (3.5% consensus) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (1.8%) well back in the field. The 2025 prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was not among the shortest-priced names in many markets — a reminder of how difficult this prize is to predict. MSF's narrow margin over the ERRs signals that the market sees humanitarian organisations operating in active crisis zones as the most plausible laureates, though no single outcome commands even 14% — reflecting genuine uncertainty across the board. Overall, both Polymarket and Kalshi align closely on the top contenders, with the most meaningful cross-platform divergence sitting in the ERRs line (2.6 pts) and Zelenskyy (1.3 pts).