Norway vs Portugal

Norway host Portugal in a UEFA Nations League fixture scheduled for 27 September 2026, and prediction markets are treating it as one of the tightest three-way match lines on the board. The three-way moneyline covers a Norway win, a Portugal win, or a draw at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. Across platforms, Norway sits as a narrow favourite at a consensus 44.6%, priced 44.6% on Azuro, 43.0% on Kalshi, 42.0% on Polymarket US and 41.5% on Polymarket. Portugal follows at a consensus 35.5% (Azuro 35.5%, Polymarket US 35.0%, Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 34.0%), while the draw is bunched at roughly 26.3% (Azuro 26.3%, Polymarket US 26.0%, Kalshi 26.0%, Polymarket 25.0%). Total-goals markets lean toward a moderate-scoring game, with Over 1.5 around 85.5% on Kalshi and Over 2.5 near 65.5%, while Over 3.5 sits at 43.5%. The widest three-way spread is on Norway, where Azuro's 44.6% is about 3.1 points above Polymarket's 41.5%; Portugal and the draw are aligned within roughly one point across venues. Overall, books agree Norway is a slight favourite in a close, low-margin matchup.