October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<1.30ºC | 2.6%Polymarket | $969 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1.30–1.34ºC | 39.0%Polymarket | $159 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1.35–1.39ºC | 38.0%Polymarket | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1.40–1.44ºC | 25.0%Polymarket | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
1.45–1.49ºC Favorite | 29.0%Polymarket | $42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
>1.49ºC | 21.5%Polymarket | $85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Polymarket. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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