OH-12 House winner?

The market centers on Ohio's 12th Congressional District race in the November 3, 2026 midterms. Polymarket resolves by party of the winner, while Kalshi is structured as a "Democrat wins" Yes/No market, so its listed candidates roll up to the same partisan question. Republican Party sits at 91.5% on Polymarket, closely mirrored by incumbent Troy Balderson's 90.2% on Kalshi. On the Democratic side, Polymarket's party line is 8.5% and Kalshi's Jerrad Christian outcome trades at 12.0%, implying a small residual for other Democratic candidates or none-of-the-above scenarios. Republicans are the overwhelming favourite by roughly 83 points, and the platform readings are essentially identical — a 0.0-point cross-platform spread on both the party and candidate lines. The pricing is consistent with the district's fundamentals: OH-12 is described as a reliably red district covering the central and western portions of Holmes County, with Trump having endorsed Republican Rep. Troy Balderson as he seeks his fifth full term after defeating software engineer and Navy veteran Jerrad Christian by more than 30 points in 2024. Jerrad Christian and Daniel Crawford are running in the Democratic primary against Balderson on May 5, 2026. Recent redistricting is also relevant: 2026 will see Ohio use newly drawn House district maps following a last-minute agreement between Democrats and the Republican supermajority, with analysts saying the new maps could give the GOP a greater advantage in two crucial districts while leaving the remaining 12 heavily partisan. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the market is priced as a near-lock for the GOP hold, with no meaningful arbitrage between venues.