Oscar Winner: Best Picture — In 2027
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Odyssey Favorite | 47.0%Polymarket | $1.8M | — | — | — | — | ||
The Black Ball | 30.0%Kalshi | $461.8K | — | — | — | — | — | |
La Bola Negra | 28.0%Polymarket | $10.2K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dune: Part Three | 11.0%Kalshi | $495.7K | — | — | — | — | ||
Wild Horse Nine | 4.0%Polymarket | $361.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
Digger | 3.0%Kalshi | $471.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Fjord | 1.4%Polymarket | $166.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
Project Hail Mary | 0.2%Polymarket | $307.0K | — | — | — | — | ||
Josephine | 0.1%Polymarket | $215.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
The Debut | 1.8%Polymarket | $294.1K | — | — | — | — | ||
The Social Reckoning | 0.2%Polymarket | $167.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Behemoth | 0.9%Polymarket | $70.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
Elsinore | 1.0%Kalshi | $152.5K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Disclosure Day | 0.2%Polymarket | $96.2K | — | — | — | — | ||
Michael | 0.1%Polymarket | $193.5K | — | — | — | — | ||
The Entertainment System Is Down | 1.0%Kalshi | $23.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Artificial | 1.0%Kalshi | $103.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew | 1.0%Kalshi | $13.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Werwulf | 1.0%Kalshi | $31.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sense and Sensibility | 1.0%Kalshi | $31.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
I Love Boosters | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 0.2%Polymarket | $66.4K | — | — | — | — | ||
Avengers: Doomsday | 0.2%Polymarket | $302.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
The Death of Robin Hood | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ink | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
All of a Sudden | 0.1%Polymarket | $33.6K | — | — | — | — | ||
Cry to Heaven | 1.0%Kalshi | $39.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tie | 1.0%Kalshi | $60.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
1949 / Fatherland | 1.0%Kalshi | $26.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Paper Tiger | 1.0%Kalshi | $72.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hope | 1.0%Kalshi | $12.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Minotaur | 1.0%Kalshi | $42.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Parallel Tales | 1.0%Kalshi | $127 | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jack of Spades | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Obsession | 1.0%Kalshi | $221.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
The Invite | 0.8%Polymarket | $46.9K | — | — | — | — | ||
Club Kid | 1.0%Kalshi | $49.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Being Heumann | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | |
You Can See Everything | 1.0%Kalshi | $180.7K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Primetime | 1.0%Kalshi | $19.3K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tender Loving Care | 1.0%Kalshi | $900 | — | — | — | — | — | |
The Drama Widest spread 0.8% | 0.2%Polymarket | $9.8K | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
The 99th Academy Awards Best Picture race is being tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027. Each market resolves to the film named winner by AMPAS, with contracts on unnominated titles resolving to "No" once the January 21 nominations are announced. Kalshi carries the bulk of activity at roughly $4.07M in volume, versus about $110K on Polymarket. The Odyssey is the clear frontrunner at a consensus 58.5%, priced at 59.0% on Kalshi and 54.0% on Polymarket — a 4.5-point cross-platform gap and a lead of roughly 46 points over the next contender. Dune: Part Three sits a distant second at 12.5% consensus (14.0% Polymarket, 13.0% Kalshi), followed by The Black Ball at 7.5%, and Wild Horse Nine and Digger tied at 5.5%. Beyond the top five, no title clears 3%. Notable spreads sit in the mid-tier: Wild Horse Nine is 9.5% on Polymarket versus 6.0% on Kalshi (4.0 points), Fjord 6.0% versus 3.0% (3.5 points), and Behemoth 4.7% versus 2.0% (3.1 points), with Polymarket consistently pricing these longer shots higher. Across both venues, the market treats The Odyssey as a dominant favourite with only modest disagreement on its exact edge.
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