Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

This market covered Game 3 of the 2026 NL Wild Card Series — a winner-take-all contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves played at Truist Park on October 1. A Phillies win would have extended their season; an Atlanta Braves win would send them to the NLDS. The market is now closed, and the outcome is definitive. The Braves used home runs from Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies to power their way to a 6-2 victory over the Phillies in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. The Atlanta Braves registered a consensus implied probability of 99.0–99.9% across Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Gemini, Azuro, and Polymarket US by the time the snapshot was taken — perfectly in line with that final result. The Phillies were priced at just 1.0% or less on virtually every platform, with no meaningful cross-platform spread on the moneyline. Philadelphia surprisingly started Aaron Nola over the more urgent option of Zack Wheeler on short rest, and the payoff was a three-run homer from Michael Harris II that set the tone in the first inning. Ozzie Albies then stroked a two-run homer in the fourth to give the Braves a 5-0 lead, effectively ending any suspense. It will be the Atlanta Braves flying to Dodger Stadium for the NLDS, while the Phillies' season came to an end in the 6-2 loss. Every platform was in lockstep on the Braves as a prohibitive favourite, and the near-zero spread across Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Azuro, and Polymarket US reflects a market that had already fully priced in the result.