Phoenix vs Las Vegas
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Las Vegas wins by over 24.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $14.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 27.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $7.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 30.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $29.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 33.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $30.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 36.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $5.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 39.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $18.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 45.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $12.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 42.5 points | 99.0%Kalshi | $9.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Phoenix Mercury Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $690.8K | — | — | — | — | Eliminated$98.1K | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 48.5 points | 1.0%Kalshi | $24.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 51.5 points | 1.0%Kalshi | $9.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas wins by over 55.5 points | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Las Vegas Aces Winner | — | $774.5K | — | — | — | — | No liquidity100.0% | — |
Dimmed prices were last confirmed too long ago for the state of this event (in play, before the game, or long-dated) and are left out of consensus, best price and spread.
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the WNBA game between the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces played on July 11, 2026, at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. It appears the game has already concluded, with markets now reflecting near-certain outcomes. On the moneyline, both Polymarket and Kalshi price Las Vegas winning at 99.9% and 99.0% respectively — a negligible cross-platform spread — while Phoenix sits at just 0.5%–1.0%, effectively pricing the Mercury out of contention. The broader suite of proposition markets on Kalshi tells the same story: Las Vegas is priced at 99.0%+ to win every quarter, every half, and the full game by margins as large as 39.5 points. The final score shows Las Vegas 99, Phoenix 66, explaining why markets have converged so sharply. The two teams split their earlier 2026 meetings, with Phoenix notably blowing out the host Aces 99–66 in the season opener on May 9. This rematch ended in a mirror-image reversal. Las Vegas, sitting at 16–6, moved into a tie with the Minnesota Lynx for the best record in the WNBA entering this game. A'ja Wilson returned from injury heading into this contest and had already recorded a double-double in her comeback game in Portland. The 33-point final margin and uniformly maxed-out Kalshi spread markets — Las Vegas priced at 99.0%+ to win by over 27.5 points — confirm the game was effectively decided early. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are in near-perfect agreement across all outcomes, with zero meaningful cross-platform spread on any resolved or near-resolved proposition.
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