PIT Steelers vs NE Patriots

This market covers the NFL regular-season game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots, originally scheduled for September 20. The core moneyline resolves to whichever team wins outright; a tie splits the market 50/50 on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Kalshi additionally specifies a 48-hour postponement window before it resolves at a fair price. Alongside the headline winner market, the event carries a large book of spread, total, and player-prop derivatives, pushing combined volume above $2.6M across venues. The Patriots are the clear favourite to win, priced at a consensus 68.3% implied probability, with the Steelers correspondingly around 32.5%. Pricing is tight across books: Kalshi has New England at 69.0%, Polymarket US at 68.5%, Azuro at 69.0%, and Polymarket at 68.0%, a cross-platform spread of just 0.75 points. The Steelers side shows a similar 1.0-point spread (Polymarket US 32.0%, Polymarket 33.0%, Kalshi 32.0%). Liquidity is concentrated on Polymarket ($1.74M volume) and Kalshi ($874K), with Azuro carrying only nominal action. Across the four venues, the winner market is essentially arbitraged flat, with the Patriots favoured by roughly a two-to-one margin.