Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $3.8M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Brandon Lowe: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $25.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Noelvi Marte: 1+ | 10.0%Kalshi | $4.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Stephenson: 1+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $5.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jacob Gonzalez: 1+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $14.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Matt McLain: 1+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $4.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Dane Myers: 1+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $546 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jhostynxon Garcia: 1+ | 4.0%Kalshi | $2.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jake Mangum: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $2.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Esmerlyn Valdez: 2+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $662 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $1.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3%Polymarket | $7.7M | — | — | — | — | — | ||
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $11.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JJ Bleday: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $10.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bryan Reynolds: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Eugenio Suárez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ryan O'Hearn: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $24.7K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Endy Rodríguez: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $24.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nick Gonzales: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Brandon Lowe: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Bryan Reynolds: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $881 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Endy Rodríguez: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $952 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jacob Gonzalez: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $468 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jhostynxon Garcia: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $281 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nathaniel Lowe: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.6K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ryan O'Hearn: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $17.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Sal Stewart: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $935 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tyler Stephenson: 2+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Cincinnati wins by over 4.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This is a July 30 MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The moneyline market — the most liquid event with over $4.25M in Kalshi volume alone — asks simply whether Pittsburgh wins. The Cincinnati Reds are the current favourite at 68.0% on Kalshi, while Polymarket prices them at 75.0%, a notable 7-point cross-platform spread. Pittsburgh sits at 33.0% on Kalshi and just 25.0% on Polymarket, a divergence of 8 points, suggesting Polymarket traders are more decisively backing Cincinnati. Pittsburgh enters at 55–54 (third in the NL Central) while Cincinnati stands at 50–57 (fifth), with ESPN Analytics giving the Reds just a 37.5% win probability — somewhat softer than the prediction-market consensus. The Pirates are coming off a 3–0 shutout loss to Arizona and have dropped five straight games against left-handed starters, going 9–23 against southpaws this season — but Cincinnati's starter is right-hander Rhett Lowder, potentially neutralising that weakness. The Reds arrive having lost two of three to Cleveland, so neither side enters in strong form. Kalshi also hosts a rich slate of Elly De La Cruz player-prop markets, with his hitting line (1+ hits) priced at 99.0% and his home-run market drawing over $211K in volume. Across platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket broadly agree on Cincinnati as favourite, but the 7–8 point spread on the moneyline outcomes is the most meaningful cross-platform discrepancy in the entire market.
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