Presidential Election Winner 2028
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Other Favorite | 50.0%Limitless | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
JD Vance | 20.9%Limitless | $16.4M | — | — | — | |||
Marco Rubio Widest spread 6.0% | 8.5%Limitless | $12.6M | — | — | — | |||
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12.0%Gemini | $13.7M | — | — | — | |||
Jon Ossoff | 11.5%Polymarket | $5.7M | — | — | — | — | ||
Gavin Newsom | 8.1%Polymarket | $18.4M | — | — | — | |||
Donald Trump | 1.1%Polymarket | $10.6M | — | — | — | |||
Kamala Harris | 4.0%Gemini | $9.0M | — | — | — | |||
Pete Buttigieg | 2.6%Polymarket | $8.3M | — | — | — | — | ||
Josh Shapiro | 3.0%Limitless | $7.6M | — | — | — | |||
Andy Beshear | 1.1%Polymarket | $19.2M | — | — | — | — | ||
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.5%Polymarket | $8.4M | — | — | — | — | ||
Ron DeSantis | 1.8%Polymarket | $12.6M | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mark Kelly | 2.0%Polymarket | $702.4K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Tucker Carlson | 1.5%Polymarket | $14.3M | — | — | — | — | — | |
Thomas Massie | 1.1%Polymarket | $8.4M | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ro Khanna | 1.0%Polymarket | $10.9M | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. On Polymarket, resolution requires the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it resolves to whoever is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. The event is listed on Polymarket, Limitless, and Gemini, with Polymarket carrying essentially all of the roughly $692M in volume. The nominal favourite is the "Other" bucket at 50.0% (priced only on Limitless), reflecting how wide the field is this far out. Among named candidates, JD Vance leads at a consensus 23.4% (Polymarket 23.0%, Limitless 23.0%, Gemini 21.0%), followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.1%, Marco Rubio at 12.0%, Jon Ossoff at 10.5%, and Gavin Newsom at 9.0%. Donald Trump sits around 3.0%, with Kamala Harris at 5.0% and a long tail of sub-1% names. Cross-platform spreads are mostly tight. The widest gaps appear on Andy Beshear (Gemini 6.0% vs Polymarket 1.1%, a 2.85-point spread), Dwayne Johnson (3.0% vs 1.5%), and Kamala Harris (Gemini 7.0% vs Polymarket/Limitless near 3.9%). Overall, platforms broadly agree Vance is the individual frontrunner in a field where no single candidate yet commands a majority of probability.
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