Recek vs Tabacco

This market covered the quarterfinal of the 2026 M25+H Kassel professional tennis tournament between Dominik Recek and Giorgio Tabacco. A "Yes" on Recek resolved if he won the match after at least one ball was played; a walkover or cancellation before play would have resolved the market to $0.50, and an in-match withdrawal would resolve the withdrawing player to No. The event is now closed, having drawn about $104,658 in volume, essentially all of it on Kalshi. Pricing on Kalshi treated the match as a near-formality for Recek, with his side at 99.0% and Tabacco at just 1.0%. Azuro, by contrast, priced the two-way match as effectively a coin flip, showing Recek at 52.4% and Tabacco at 53.5%, alongside a wider set of handicap and totals markets (for example, Over 8.5 games at 76.3% and Under 2.5 sets at 66.7%). Azuro reported no volume or liquidity on the head-to-head. The favourite was clearly Recek, with Kalshi implying he was almost certain to win. The main cross-platform takeaway is the roughly 46-point gap between Kalshi's 99.0% and Azuro's 52.4% on Recek, reflecting Kalshi's deep, traded market versus Azuro's untraded, near-even quote.