Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Other Favorite | 59.9%Limitless | $576 | — | — | — | — | — | |
J.D. Vance Widest spread 6.0% | 23.6%Limitless | $20.0M | — | |||||
Marco Rubio | 15.4%Polymarket | $16.2M | — | |||||
Ron DeSantis | 2.6%Polymarket | $18.6M | — | |||||
Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6%Limitless | $12.6M | — | |||||
Tucker Carlson | 2.9%Kalshi | $18.3M | — | — | ||||
Donald Trump | 2.0%Polymarket | $14.0M | — | |||||
Ted Cruz | 1.6%Polymarket | $21.4M | — | |||||
Tulsi Gabbard | 0.2%Polymarket | $15.6M | — | — | — | |||
Glenn Youngkin | 0.5%Polymarket | $9.8M | — | — | ||||
Nikki Haley | 0.4%Polymarket | $12.8M | — | — | — | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.2%Polymarket | $17.7M | — | — | — | |||
Greg Abbott | 0.4%Polymarket | $22.7M | — | — | — | |||
Brian Kemp | 0.4%Polymarket | $19.6M | — | — | — | |||
Byron Donalds | 0.2%Polymarket | $45.7M | — | — | — | |||
Elon Musk | 0.1%Polymarket | $32.9M | — | — | — | |||
Rand Paul | 0.4%Polymarket | $20.9M | — | — | — | |||
Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3%Polymarket | $9.8M | — | — | ||||
Thomas Massie | 0.9%Polymarket | $9.4M | — | — | ||||
Ivanka Trump | 0.5%Polymarket | $10.8M | — | — | — | — | ||
Lara Trump | 1.0%Kalshi | $16.0K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Spencer Pratt | 1.0%Kalshi | $328.6K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Jeff Bezos | 1.0%Kalshi | $100.9K | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pete Hegseth | 0.7%Polymarket | $10.6M | — | — | — | — | ||
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market asks which individual will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. With no candidate having formally declared, the field remains wide open, and the dominant market signal right now is actually a *negative* one: Secretary of State Marco Rubio has climbed into a near tie with Vice President JD Vance in early polling, yet prediction markets still price "Not Marco Rubio" as the clear favourite at 76.5% on Polymarket US — meaning traders collectively believe Rubio is more likely to fall short than to win the nomination. The leading named contender across platforms is J.D. Vance, priced at 50.3% on Polymarket, 48.0% on Polymarket US, 46.0% on Kalshi, and 45.0% on Gemini — but as low as 23.7% on Limitless, creating the widest cross-platform spread in the field at 5.65 points. Rubio is the second-place contender, clustered tightly around 19.6%–21.0% on most platforms, though Polymarket US prices him at 42.0%, a notable outlier. The gap between Vance and the rest of the named field is substantial: Ron DeSantis sits at just 4.5% consensus, with Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump himself all below 4.0%. Trump has suggested Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent, while also proposing that Vance and Rubio join forces on a future ticket — a dynamic that may be suppressing Rubio's ceiling in trader eyes. Rubio surged from 7% to 26% in New Hampshire's latest GOP primary poll, and captured 57% of conservative attendees at the Western Conservative Summit straw poll, lending context to his rising market share. Across all platforms, Vance is the consensus favourite for the nomination itself, but the unusually wide Limitless spread and Polymarket US's elevated Rubio figure suggest the two-man race narrative is still being actively repriced.
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