Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

This market tracks who will ultimately win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with each outcome representing a named individual accepting that nomination; a large "Other" catch-all and dozens of long-shot names (from sitting senators to celebrities) round out the field. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, Gemini, Polymarket US and Limitless, Vice President J.D. Vance is the clear favorite at a 44.3% consensus probability, though pricing varies noticeably by venue — from 23.7% on the thinly traded Limitless to 49.4% on Polymarket, a spread of nearly 6 points. Marco Rubio sits a distant second at 16.5% consensus, with Ron DeSantis, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. clustered in the low single digits, and a long tail of names polling under 1%. The gap between Vance and Rubio reflects real swings over the past year. Vance's recovery follows a summer dip into the low-30% range, when Rubio traded much closer to the vice president, with the latest movement widening their separation to 24 percentage points. His position as vice president keeps him closely associated with the administration, and he has previously said he would discuss a potential presidential run with Trump after November's elections. More recently, betting markets suggest Vance is the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination, with Rubio a distant second and a large field of other prospective candidates trailing behind. Overall, while every tracked platform agrees Vance leads the field by a wide margin over Rubio, the size of that lead — and the market's confidence in it — still differs meaningfully depending on which venue a reader checks.