San Diego vs Milwaukee

This listing covers Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers. Polymarket and Kalshi place the game on October 3 at 8:30 PM ET. The two outcomes are straightforward: one resolves to the Brewers if Milwaukee wins, and the other to the Padres if San Diego wins. Polymarket's rules say a postponed game keeps the market open, and a cancellation with no make-up game resolves 50-50. Kalshi's rules allow up to two days for a delayed game before it resolves to a fair price. Total volume across venues stands at about $2.34 million, led by Kalshi and Novig. Milwaukee is the clear favourite, with a consensus implied probability of 64.5% against 35.5% for San Diego. That gap of roughly 29 points signals the market sees the Brewers as nearly a two-to-one favourite to take the opener. Venue midpoints for Milwaukee are tightly grouped: Novig 64.8%, Polymarket 64.5%, Gemini 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5% and Polymarket US 64.3%. Padres pricing mirrors this, from 35.3% on Novig to 35.8% on Polymarket US. Azuro is excluded from consensus due to no liquidity, and Gemini and Polymarket US show minimal or zero activity. The cross-platform spread is just 0.5 points on either outcome, so the venues broadly agree on Milwaukee as the favourite.