Seattle vs Tampa Bay
Markets
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| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners Winner | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.6M | No liquidity48.3% | — | — | — | No liquidity99.9% | — | |
Yandy Díaz: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Josh Naylor: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $2.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mitch Garver: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $403 | — | — | No liquidity2.0% | — | — | — | — |
J.P. Crawford: 2+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $541 | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cole Young: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $4.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Yandy Díaz: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $136 | — | — | No liquidity27.0% | — | — | — | — |
J.P. Crawford: 3+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.8K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
J.P. Crawford: 5+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $535 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Weston Wilson: 1+ | 99.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Hunter Feduccia: 1+ | 50.0%Kalshi | $1.9K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Yandy Díaz: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Buddy Kennedy: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mariners wins by over 4.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $14.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mariners wins by over 5.5 runs | 99.0%Kalshi | $33.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chandler Simpson: 2+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $946 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cedric Mullins: 2+ | 45.0%Kalshi | $260 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Victor Robles: 2+ | 35.0%Kalshi | $191 | — | — | No liquidity33.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mariners wins by over 9.5 runs | 30.0%Kalshi | $534 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Hunter Feduccia: 2+ | 25.0%Kalshi | $3.1K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cole Young: 3+ | 16.0%Kalshi | $3.5K | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Josh Naylor: 3+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $2.4K | — | — | No liquidity29.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mitch Garver: 4+ | 13.0%Kalshi | $100 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Richie Palacios: 3+ | 11.0%Kalshi | $117 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cole Young: 4+ | 10.0%Kalshi | $374 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Josh Naylor: 5+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $1.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chandler Simpson: 4+ | 6.0%Kalshi | $160 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 14.5 runs scored | 6.0%Kalshi | $324 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Richie Palacios: 5+ | 5.0%Kalshi | $534 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Chandler Simpson: 1+ | 3.0%Kalshi | $1.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Victor Robles: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.6K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Cedric Mullins: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Josh Naylor: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Victor Mesa: 1+ | 2.0%Kalshi | $590 | — | — | No liquidity1.0% | — | — | — | — |
Tampa Bay Rays Eliminated | 1.0%Kalshi | $2.1M | No liquidity50.2% | — | — | — | Eliminated$369.5K | — | |
Cole Young: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $8.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
J.P. Crawford: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $4.9K | — | — | No liquidity99.0% | — | — | — | — |
Mitch Garver: 1+ | 1.0%Kalshi | $7.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 12.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $5.5K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Over 13.5 runs scored | 1.0%Kalshi | $487 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mariners wins by over 7.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $6.8K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mariners wins by over 8.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $715 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mariners wins by over 6.5 runs | 1.0%Kalshi | $81.3K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
This market covers the MLB regular-season game between the Seattle Mariners and the Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 1:40 PM ET. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the market resolves to the winning team, with provisions for postponements; a cancellation or tie resolves 50-50 on Polymarket. Azuro also lists a draw outcome, reflecting a three-way structure. The event is listed on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Azuro, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of the volume at roughly $5,040. Tampa Bay is the favourite at a 59.0% consensus, priced highest on Kalshi (59.0%), followed by Polymarket (56.5%) and Azuro (50.2%). Seattle sits at a 43.5% consensus, with Azuro pricing the Mariners highest at 49.0%, Polymarket at 43.5%, and Kalshi cheapest at 42.0%. Azuro additionally prices a draw at 14.2%, which explains why its two-team probabilities sum lower than on the binary markets. The cross-platform spread on Tampa Bay is 2.5 points between Kalshi and Polymarket (ignoring Azuro's three-way pricing), while Seattle's spread is 1.5 points. The takeaway: all three venues lean toward Tampa Bay, but Kalshi expresses the strongest conviction while Azuro's three-way market implies the tightest matchup.
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