South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? — In 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Nordone 5–10% Winner | 99.0%Polymarket | $890 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Darline Graham | 91.0%Kalshi | $4.4M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Ralph Norman | 10.0%Kalshi | $2.5M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Graham Nordone 10–15% | 3.5%Polymarket | $717 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Graham Nordone 20%+ | 2.8%Polymarket | $248 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fry <5% | 2.7%Polymarket | $439 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Norman 5%+ | 2.5%Polymarket | $602 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Fry 5%+ | 2.3%Polymarket | $823 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Norman <5% | 2.9%Polymarket | $2.1K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Russell Fry | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.5M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Pamela Evette | 1.0%Kalshi | $133.2K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Nancy Mace | 1.0%Kalshi | $102.9K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Henry McMaster | 1.0%Kalshi | $27.0K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mark Lynch | 1.0%Kalshi | $115.4K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Mark Sanford | 1.0%Kalshi | $1.3M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
AI-generated summary, may be inaccurate.
South Carolina is holding a special Republican Senate primary on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25. Kalshi is running a straightforward "who wins" market, while Polymarket lists a companion market on the first-round margin of victory between the top two finishers. Together, they give a layered picture of both candidate strength and expected competitiveness. On Kalshi's winner market, Ralph Norman leads at 28.0%, with Russell Fry close behind at 25.0%. Longer-shot named contenders — Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and Henry McMaster — sit at just 1.0% each. Polymarket's margin brackets, which are tied to the "Graham Nordone" scenario naming, cluster heaviest around a 5–10 point margin at 27.0% and under 5 points at 20.0%, tapering off toward larger margins (10–15% at 14.0%, 15–20% at 8.5%, and 20%+ at 10.0%). Candidate-specific margin outcomes on Polymarket show Norman under 5 points at roughly 7.0–8.7% and Fry under 5 at 5.5–13.0%, while a Sanford win prices near 4.9%. Across platforms, the consensus points to a competitive two-way race between Norman and Fry, with the field expecting a relatively tight first-round finish rather than a runaway.
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