Spain vs Czechia

Spain host Czechia in a UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 3, 2026. The event has three outcomes: a Spain win, a draw, or a Czechia win. Kalshi's rules settle the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Combined volume across platforms is about $2.18 million, and nearly all of it sits on Kalshi ($725,589) and Polymarket ($688,556). Spain are heavy favourites at a consensus 92.5%. Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Limitless all price Spain at 92.5%, Novig is slightly lower at 92.0%, and Azuro is highest at 93.5%. The draw has a consensus of 5.5%, and Czechia sit at just 2.5%. Spain therefore lead the next most likely outcome by about 87 points, which shows the market sees an upset as very unlikely. The largest disagreement is on the draw. Azuro prices it at 9.9%, while Limitless has it at 4.8%, a spread of 4.36 points. Azuro also rates Czechia higher than the other platforms, at 4.0% against roughly 2.3% to 2.5% elsewhere. Some of these figures should be read with caution: Limitless shows only $73 in volume and no liquidity, and Polymarket US has no recorded activity. Overall, the platforms broadly agree on Spain's dominance, and the only notable divergence is Azuro's higher pricing of the draw and Czechia outcomes.