Spanish general election: margin of victory — On Nov 29, 2026
Markets
Every market on this event, moneyline first. Select one to compare it across platforms in the side panel.
| Outcome | Best | Volume | Azuro | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Novig | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
People's Party, 0-3% | 19.0%Kalshi | $416 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
PSOE, 0-3% | 10.0%Kalshi | $269 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
People's Party, 3-6% Favorite | 30.0%Kalshi | $269 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
PSOE, ≥3% | 5.0%Kalshi | $335 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
People's Party, 6-9% | 28.0%Kalshi | $416 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
People's Party, 9-12% | 13.0%Kalshi | $406 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
People's Party, ≥12% | 7.0%Kalshi | $335 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Description from Kalshi. A cross-platform summary is generated once this event is matched across platforms.
The margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.
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